MacroMonitor

Model

The Nowcast is based on real-time estimates from a Dynamic Factor model (DFM) built on the framework of Antolin-Diaz et al. (2021). The model represents 22 macroeconomic variables, observed at monthly and quarterly frequency, as a function of three unobserved common factors. It also features a stochastic trend for GDP growth, outlier detection, and stochastic volatility.

Data Sources

Included variables span industrial production, retail sales, labour market statistics, survey data (PMI, GfK, CBI, Lloyds), and trade data, supplemented by Euro Area indicators. These series match those commonly used in third-party nowcasts. All series are sourced from the ONS, Bank of England, and LSEG (Refinitiv).

Updates and Estimation

The nowcast is updated weekly on Monday at 12:00pm to reflect all releases up to the previous Friday. Updates continue for a given quarter until the ONS release of preliminary GDP data for that period. Model parameters are re-estimated once a quarter, following the ONS preliminary GDP release. As a result, between GDP releases, all changes in the nowcast are due to news releases. These changes can be decomposed into components that can be attributed to the real-time data sources.

Model Description

Calemma, Di Biase & Lazarowicz — UCL MacroMonitor

History of Estimates

Download the full archive of past GDP nowcasts as a CSV file. The file contains the date of publication, the target period, and the central estimate with uncertainty bands.

Suggested citation: Lewis, D., Giacomini, R., Nesheim, L., Calemma, C., Di Biase, T., Fontanesi, M., and Lazarowicz, T. (2026). “UCL MacroMonitor: GDP Nowcast.” University College London.