GDP Nowcast
Real-time GDP growth estimates updated weekly
Nowcast Evolution
Weekly estimates with 50%, 68%, 80%, and 90% confidence bands
Commentary
Impact of Data Releases on Nowcast Revision
Nowcast evolution with weekly impact of data releases by category
Forecast vs Actual
Quarterly forecast accuracy (2018–2026)
Methodology
The nowcast is based on real-time estimates from a Dynamic Factor model (DFM) built on the framework of Antolin-Diaz et al. (2021). The model represents 22 macroeconomic variables, observed at monthly and quarterly frequency, as a function of three unobserved common factors. It also features a stochastic trend for GDP growth, outlier detection, and stochastic volatility.
Included variables span industrial production, retail sales, labour market statistics, survey data (PMI, GfK, CBI, Lloyds), and trade data, supplemented by Euro Area indicators.
Each confidence band represents an interval in which the ONS preliminary GDP release is expected to fall with the indicated probability.
The nowcast is updated weekly on Monday at 12:00pm to reflect all releases up to the previous Friday. Updates continue for a given quarter until the ONS release of preliminary GDP data for that period.